Following Yevgeny Prigozhin's abortive 'march for justice' towards the Russian capital last weekend, President Lukashenko of Belarus intervened and apparently offered the Wagner boss safe sanctuary in exile
However, he will want to"weed out" those fighters loyal to Prigozhin and bring the remainder under closer control of the Russian ministry of defence to minimise the threat of a further coup.
Although Prigozhin is probably grateful for the opportunity afforded him by Lukashenko, he must also be aware that Putin has broader ambitions to subjugate Belarus and there is potential that Prigozhin could prove a useful asset for Putin when required - perhaps as a way back into the Moscow fold. It is possible that Putin, having expunged the direct threat posed by Prigozhin, will coerce him into mounting operations against the Ukrainian capital Kyiv from Belarus territory.Satellite image of area of Belarus before suspected Wagner camp had been set up. Pic date: 24 JuneKyiv is significantly closer to Belarus than Russia, which would provide a significant logistical advantage to the attacking force.
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