Despite recent price drops and predictions of a slowdown, iron ore prices may remain high due to depletion and supply constraints. While new mines like Simandou in Guinea are expected to come online, depletion rates and weather events like La Niña could keep prices elevated.
Copper is said to be the key to mega mergers planned by Glencore and Rio Tinto though both also have an asset plum in their portfolios, a commodity which refuses to lie down and might even keep rising this year, iron ore.Down from a high 12-months ago of US$140/t for high grade material, and a fraction of the $220/t of four years ago, iron ore dropped to $89/t in September prompting some investment bank analysts to dismiss it as yesterday's star.
New narrativeMorgan Stanley was less forceful in making that point but it did produce some interesting numbers in a report circulated earlier this month titled "A new iron ore supply narrative for 2025."Unlike the last two years, which were marked by a strong increase in supply from the major producers this year is expected to be different thanks to weather effects on mines and ports, and a depletion.
IRON ORE SUPPLY DEMAND DEPLETION SIMANDOU MINE LA NIÑA
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