The world must also ensure that Vladimir Putin does not prosper from his aggression today. Otherwise he will issue more nuclear threats in the future
limited the support it was prepared to offer, with two implications that are all the more worrying for having been drowned out by the drumbeat of Russia’s conventional campaign. One is that vulnerable states that see the world through Ukraine’s eyes will feel that the best defence against a nuclear-armed aggressor is to have weapons of their own. The other is that other nuclear-armed states will believe that they can gain by copying Mr Putin’s tactics.
The invasion of Ukraine adds to this malaise. Even if Mr Putin is bluffing, his threats eat away at the security guarantees given to non-nuclear states. In 1994 Ukraine surrendered the ex-Soviet nuclear weapons on its territory in exchange for undertakings from Russia, America and Britain that it would not be attacked. By seizing Crimea and backing separatists in the Donbas regions in 2014, Russia flagrantly broke that promise.
Mr Putin’s strategy of issuing nuclear threats is even more corrosive. In the decades after the second world war, the nuclear powers contemplated deploying atomic weapons in battle. But in the past half-century such warnings have been issued only against countries, such as Iraq and North Korea, that were themselves threatening to use weapons of mass destruction. Mr Putin is different because he is invoking atomic threats to help his invading forces win a conventional war.
Arms control, with scrupulous verification, is worth pursuing. Russia may be wary, but it is impoverished. Nukes cost money and it needs to rebuild its conventional forces. America could retire its land-based missiles without compromising its security in exchange for Russian cuts. Both sides could agree on technical measures, such as not to strike nuclear command, control and communications infrastructure in a conventional conflict. Ultimately, the aim should be to bring in China.
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