Real-time data show a subdued but strengthening economy
, launched in response to Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in February, have wounded Russia’s long-term economic prospects. Blocking the world’s ninth-largest economy from accessing foreign technology and expertise has cut its growth potential by as much as half, forecasts suggest. Output of oil and gas, the lifeblood of the Russian economy, is about 3% lower than it was before the invasion and may fall further once European embargoes come into effect at the turn of the year.
Despite these difficulties, the recession has probably now come to an end. Many people doubt officialdata, but it is possible to get a sense of activity from a range of sources. Goldman Sachs, a bank, produces a “current-activity indicator”, which suggests how economies are doing from month to month. The data indicate that Russian activity is quite a bit livelier than it is in big European countries .
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