Can Beijing stop the Ukraine war?

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Can Beijing stop the Ukraine war?
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China and the US are the only powers outside Russia and Ukraine who can change the course of this conflict, writes Philipp Ivanov.

The one-year anniversary of the war in Ukraine this week is a sombre milestone, reminding us of the enormous human toll of this conflict, but also of the failure of diplomacy.The week was marked by uncompromising statements by leaders of Ukraine, Russia and the United States committing their countries to victory, and in the case of the US – an unwavering support for Ukraine, leaving little hope for a peaceful resolution to Europe’s bloodiest conflict since 1945.

It is presumptuous to judge the merits of this initiative we know so little about. The world should give China an opportunity to make its case. But it is fair to ask if China has an interest, motivation, and influence to bring peace to Ukraine.Since the outbreak of the war a year ago, China has faced strident criticism from the West about its support for Russia. The US, Europe and Ukraine repeatedly called for China to use its influence in Kremlin to stop the war.

China is caught in what Carnegie Endowment for International Peace vice-president Evan Feigenbaum describes as a “Beijing straddle”. China’s commitment to maintaining a “no-limit” partnership with Russia collides with its much more consequential relationships with the US and Europe, the desire to avoid secondary sanctions, and be seen as neutral on Ukraine.

Beijing is interested in a weakened Russia, loyal and dependent on China. But a defeated and unstable Russia is a nightmare scenario for Beijing. Both Americans and Europeans are highly critical of China’s relationship with Russia. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken this week made public his concerns about China’s plans to provide lethal aid to Russia.

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