It would need to replace military aid, a nuclear umbrella and leadership
The deadlock in Congress reflects the baleful influence of, whose fierce opposition to aid for Ukraine has cowed Republicans into submission. But the spectre of Mr Trump’s return to office in November’s presidential election cast an even darker pall over Munich. A week earlier Mr Trump had boasted of telling an ally that he would not come to their defence if they fell short ofspending targets: “You’re delinquent? No, I would not protect you.
Not everyone is so sanguine. If American aid were to evaporate entirely, Ukraine would probably lose, one American official tells. Mr Pistorius is correct that European arms production is rising fast; the continent should be able to produce shells at an annual rate of 1m-2m late this year, potentially outstripping America. But that may come too late for Ukraine, which by itself needs some 1.5m per year according to Rheinmetall, a European arms manufacturer.
Even when Europe can produce combat forces, they often lack the things needed to fight effectively and for long enough: command-and-control capabilities, such as staff officers trained to run large headquarters; intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, such as drones and satellites; logistics capabilities, including airlift; and ammunition to last for longer than a week or so.
These twin challenges—building up military capability and revitalising arms production—are formidable. Europe’s defence industry is less fragmented than many assume, says Jan Joel Andersson of theInstitute for Security Studies in a recent paper: the continent makes fewer types of fighter jets and airborne radar planes than America, for instance. But there are inefficiencies. Countries often have different design priorities.
Such musings have a long history. In the 1960s America and Europe pondered a “multilateral” nuclear force under joint control. Today, the idea that Britain or France would “share” the decision to use nuclear weapons is a non-starter, writes Bruno Tertrais, a French expert involved in the debate for decades, in a recent paper. Nor is France likely to join the, he says.
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