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The global lead market has bifurcated since the start of June with Shanghai Futures Exchange prices significantly outperforming the London Metal Exchange .
The contrasting fortunes of the two markets for the battery metal derive from the distribution of inventory. The LME warehouse network is awash with metal, while Shanghai is gripped in a rolling squeeze.LME lead stocks more than doubled over the first quarter of 2024, hitting an 11-year high of 275,925 tons on April 2.
LME warehouses in Singapore have seen 63,000 tons of fresh warranting activity over June and July, suggesting a large part of that off-warrant tonnage is still there. China’s primary lead production fell by 4.7% and its secondary output by 8.5% over the first half of the year, according to SMM, reflecting shortages of both mined concentrates and battery scrap.
China flipped from being a net importer of refined lead in the 2017-2020 period to a significant net exporter over the following years.
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