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One of the standout commodity stories so far this year has been China’s demand for thermal coal, with the world’s largest importer seeing record shipments arriving in the first half.
July’s seaborne imports of thermal coal are forecast by Kpler to be 29.66 million tons, slightly higher than June’s 29.44 million, but weaker by 2.5% on a per day basis. China’s coal production rebounded in June, with output of all grades of the fuel jumping to a six-month high of 405.38 million tons, which was also 3.6% above the same month in 2023, according to official data released on July 15.
Coal’s share in China’s electricity mix is being eroded by hydropower, which is rebounding from a weak, drought-affected 2023, and also by rising output from renewables such as wind and solar. The answer is not necessarily, as any coal not taken by China tends to be bought by other countries, especially if there is some retreat in prices.
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