The Kremlin's penchant for 'nuclear bullying' is brought into sharp focus by Ukraine's firing of American long-range missiles into Russia
The Kremlin's penchant for 'nuclear bullying' is brought into sharp focus by Ukraine's firing of American long-range missiles into Russia
The result is that Moscow’s penchant for what one analyst describes as “nuclear bullying” is once more to the fore, and this time with an unusually sharp focus after the very scenario which it said could lead it to consider atomic weapon use – a strike on Russian soil by Kyiv using Western armaments – appeared to come to fruition.
With a clear nod to the situation in Ukraine, the revised doctrine caters for a scenario whereby Russia is attacked by a non-nuclear state “with the support of a nuclear state”, using conventional weapons supplied by the nuclear state. In turn, the document makes clear that if the nuclear state is part of a defence coalition – ie Nato – then Russia would consider itself to have been attacked by that coalition.
In order to maximise its signalling around NSNW, the Kremlin has of late made a public display of moving tactical nuclear warheads and short-range Iskander missiles capable of carrying them to a new facility in Belarus, completed in the summer of 2023. Analysts pointed out that the move was “largely psychological” because Iskanders based in Russia were already capable of striking any target in Western Europe.
Heather Williams, director of the nuclear programme at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think-tank, said: “A reason Russia continues to rely on nuclear saber-rattling is because it is getting away with it. These risky behaviours are essentially cost-free to Moscow and have drawn little-to-no response from the wider international community, aside from statements of opprobrium by the United States and some European states.
It nonetheless remains the case that for all a Russian nuclear retaliation in Ukraine is considered to be far-fetched, it cannot be completely excluded. The result is that there is no complete certainty about Russian intentions. An assessment by America’s Defence Intelligence Agency made public earlier this year noted that “an existential threat to the Russian state is cited in Russian doctrine … as justification for nuclear use, and the West cannot completely discount the possibility of Russia using nuclear weapons in Ukraine” .To some extent, the West has already been here before.
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