Fed Preview: Forecasts from 15 major banks, risk of a hawkish shift in the dot plot

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Fed Preview: Forecasts from 15 major banks, risk of a hawkish shift in the dot plot
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The US Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its Interest Rate Decision on Wednesday, March 20 at 18:00 GMT and as we get closer to the release time, here are the expectations as forecast by analysts and researchers of 15 major banks.

The US Federal Reserve will announce its Interest Rate Decision on Wednesday, March 20 at 18:00 GMT and as we get closer to the release time, here are the expectations as forecast by analysts and researchers of 15 major banks. The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% for the fifth time in a row. Investors are eagerly awaiting the quarterly dot plot. The Fed’s last dot plot suggested a median forecast of three rate cuts through 2024.

The funds rate will be left unchanged, and Powell ought to avoid giving any definitive signal on when the first cuts will arrive. We’ll concede that recent data on inflation hasn’t been friendly to our forecast for 100 bps of cuts in the latter half of the year, and we’ll need to see some softening in jobs, wages and underlying inflation in the coming months to stick with that view.

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