If a conflict in the Asia-Pacific region broke out, what would it look like, and what roles could conventional and nuclear submarines play?
Australia’s $368 billion move to arm itself with a fleet of stealthy, large, and fast nuclear-powered submarines, and China’s vow to make its military even mightier, are early signs the world is on the cusp of a new Cold War, according to one former chief of the Australian Army.
This body of water is also strategically critical for China. About one-third of global shipping passes through the South China Sea and China relies heavily on the sea for trade, as do Taiwan, Japan and South Korea.
Leahy says China probably thought it would be able to get away with its expansion plans in the South China Sea, but with a broad coalition of like-minded nations pushing back, “they’ve figured out the gig is up”. Second, they are important for surveillance and intelligence gathering. Other military hardware, such as aircraft, can gather intelligence but once they fly into an area the adversary generally knows they are there and may delay conveying certain information, or change their conduct. Because a submarine can operate covertly it has the potential to mine a ship or a port in enemy waters for information while remaining undetected.
Third, if it comes to it, submarines can attack. “If things go wrong, then a submarine can do a whole range of different things,” Patrick says. “One of them is to sink ships, which might be useful in terms of blockading a strait, or they can operate forward and take out ships on the way towards us.” When it comes to endurance, the energy required to power a boat with a nuclear reactor, which creates steam as a by-product, is essentially infinite. Nuclear-powered submarines can, in theory, stay underwater and undiscovered for their 25-year lifespan. The only limits are the requirements of their large crews, such as food and communication with the home base.
According to the US Naval Institute, some can stay underwater without “snorkelling” for up to three weeks, travelling 2400 kilometres or more. Because they are smaller, they can also slip into shallow waters more easily without being detected. “These are a long way away from the south [where our naval bases are]. Therefore, you need boats that have very significant range and endurance. And you can do that with conventional submarines. We did it with a Collins Class. But the fact is, it was conventionally powered submarines, the transit speed, if you’re making a clandestine, covert passage, it’s going to be relatively slow,” Brabin-Smith says.
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