Impact of the 2022 European heat wave: Over 60,000 deaths recorded ISGLOBALorg UPFBarcelona umontpellier psl_univ heat heatwave climate weather
By Hugo Francisco de SouzaJul 17 2023Reviewed by Benedette Cuffari, M.Sc. In a recent study published in Nature Medicine, researchers estimate mortality due to heat in Europe in the summer of 2022, which was Europe’s hottest summer on record. To this end, epidemiological models were used to determine that 62,862 individuals died in Europe due to heat-related causes, which is the second highest in recorded history after the summer of 2003.
The last eight years have been the hottest globally, with 2022 being the fifth warmest year ever recorded. Europe remains one of the worst regions affected, with ambient temperatures an average of 1 °C warmer than before the industrial revolution. Europe experienced its hottest season on record in the summer of 2022. Intense heat waves resulted in droughts and fire across many regions, with Eurostat, the European statistical office, reporting unusually high mortality during the season. However, the entire European region has not yet quantified heat-related mortality.
Temperature and mortality data between January 2015 and December 2019 were used to calibrate epidemiological models, which were then used to estimate age- and sex-specific mortality for 2022. Statistical analyses comprised a quasi-Poisson regression model, which was used to evaluate temperature-mortality relationships in each of the 823 identified European regions.
Age was a significant predictor of death, with significant increases in mortality observed with age. Individuals between ages 0-64, 65-79, and 80+ years comprised 4,822, 9,226, and 36,848 deaths, respectively. The summer of 2022 was also confirmed to be the hottest season in recorded European history, with a mean temperature of 20.30 °C, which was higher than the previous hottest summer of 2003 at 20.20 °C. Regression analyses suggest that 35.3 additional individuals die/million for every 1 °C temperature increase.
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