JPM: Consensus earnings expectations for the S&P 500 this year look too optimistic
Analysts’ projections imply that S&P 500 earnings per share will jump 17% between Q1 and Q4 this year. According to JPMorgan, this suggests that S&P 500 companies need to exhibit “very high topline growth or a very strong expansion in profit margins.”In this context, JPMorgan strategists analyzed the relationship between S&P 500 revenue growth and nominal GDP growth.
As a matter of fact, JPMorgan said that both S&P 500 revenue and earnings growth are converging towards a mid-single-digit rate, around 5%, marking a sharp contrast when compared to the optimistic high double-digit growth estimates that are projected for this year. They base their cautious stance on the expectation that a prolonged high-interest-rate environment will continue to pressure equity markets, increasing concerns about a potential hard landing.
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