Analysis of 2024 polling and previous elections involving Donald Trump suggests race is still too close to call
While Biden was trailing the Republican former president nationally and in many crucial swing states, Harris has gained about three points in national polls since becoming the nominee.Harris’s lead over Trump is weaker than those of his previous opponents. As of 30 August in their respective campaigns, Hillary Clinton led Trump by five points in 2016 and Biden was ahead of him by 6.3 points in 2020.But national polling is only part of the picture.
Christopher Borick, a professor of political science and director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion, said this was key: “We’re talking about a few points either way being critical . Josh Clinton, the chair of the American Association for Public Opinion Research taskforce that produced a study on 2020 polls,: “The polling error was the highest in 40 years for the national popular vote and the highest in at least 20 years for state-level estimates of the vote.”
The methodological errors included incorrect weighting that led to under-representation of less educated voters, as well as a lack of attention paid to voters’ recalled voting patterns. Polling companies have sought to address these in this election, for example by the wide adoption of education as an additional survey weight.
United Kingdom Latest News, United Kingdom Headlines
Similar News:You can also read news stories similar to this one that we have collected from other news sources.
US election 2024: Kamala Harris picks Tim Walz for vice presidentVice president Kamala Harris has chosen Tim Walz as her running mate in the hope of winning over male voters.
Read more »
Kamala Harris formally accepts Democratic Party’s 2024 presidential nomination7NEWS brings you the latest local news from Australia and around the world. Stay up to date with all of the breaking sport, politics, entertainment, finance, weather and business headlines. Today's news, live updates & all the latest breaking stories from 7NEWS.
Read more »
‘Kamala IS brat’: an expert explains the Kamala Harris memes flooding the internetCampaigns are expensive, but capturing popular culture is effective and much cheaper.
Read more »
2024 US presidential polls: Harris makes gains on Trump in national averagesFind out who’s up and who’s down in the latest US presidential election opinion polls
Read more »
2024 US presidential polls: Harris taps into near-record levels of enthusiasmFind out who’s up and who’s down in the latest US presidential election opinion polls
Read more »
Kamala Harris edges ahead of Donald Trump in national polls for US electionPolling indicates Kamala Harris’s candidacy has tightened the US presidential race. At home, the numbers are a mixed bag for the government.
Read more »