LORD ASHCROFT: In my three surveys conducted before and after the verdicts, Trump's position has slightly strengthened - but neither event led to a movement outside the margin of error.
This weekend, Republicans gather at their convention in Milwaukee in the wake of two events that in another era would have seemed like political earthquakes.
Thursday night's Nato press conference, in which he introduced Ukraine's leader Volodymyr Zelensky as 'president Putin' and referred to his own deputy as 'vice president Trump', hardly alleviated their doubts. The chain of events sums up the big issue facing voters in November: the two candidates' fitness for office, whether moral or literal.
In my three surveys conducted before and after the verdicts, and again after the TV debate, I found that, if anything, Trump's position has slightly strengthened since his case concluded – but neither event led to a movement outside the margin of error. But most of all, as always, they weigh it against everything else and decide that other things matter more – especially a struggling economy, worrying overseas commitments and the memory of better times under President Trump.
Only a quarter of voters, including only one in three of those who voted for Biden in 2020, say they feel better off than they did four years ago The natural move would be to pass the baton to Vice President Kamala Harris, but it is clear that this puts the Democrats in even more of a quandary. They fear that they cannot win with Harris at the top of the ticket, and with good reason: her approval ratings are no better than the President's.
It is older voters who most back Biden on the back of issues such as Medicare and social security, as well as greater sympathy over his age-related controversies
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