The Met Office has responded to reports the UK is facing an Arctic Blast
The Met Office has responded to stories about an impending Arctic Blast snowbomb in the UK amid uncertainty over forecasts. The weather experts say they start receiving queries about snow on December 25 as early as October, but note that mid-December still falls within the realm of doubt for such precise forecasts.
Devon Live reports that Met Office Meteorologist Aidan McGivern further clarified best practices, remarking: "What meteorologists actually do, is rather than cherry pick one computer model run for more than two weeks' time, the computer models are run lots and lots of times and then we can pick out areas where they are agreeing and areas where they are disagreeing. Then we can talk about likely weather patterns and less-likely weather patterns, common themes and so on.
Moreover, they elaborated on the unpredictability, stating, "This is because when looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future, the chaotic nature of the atmosphere begins to play a larger part. Even small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time.
Since 1960, around half of the years have seen at least 5% of the station network record snow falling on Christmas Day. This means we can probably expect more than half of all Christmas Days to be a 'white Christmas'.
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