This article analyzes the shift in Middle Eastern power dynamics, highlighting Israel's military prowess and its complex relationship with the Palestinian issue. It argues that Israel's recent actions against Hamas and Hezbollah demonstrate its emergence as a dominant force, but also raises concerns about its disregard for civilian lives and its lack of a political solution for the Palestinians.
The writer is former chief of MI6 and UK ambassador to the UN. We often think of the Middle East as built around the Arab world. Baghdad and Damascus were the historical centres of authority. In the 20th century, Cairo and Beirut became the region’s cultural capitals until they declined and their influence was overtaken by the oil and gas wealth of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf.
Today, it is striking that the three most assertive and powerful countries in the region — Israel, Turkey and Iran — are the non-Arab nations. Each is led by an ageing warhorse. Benjamin Netanyahu has been Israel’s prime minister for 17 of the last 28 years. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been in power in Turkey for almost 22 years, and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been Iran’s supreme leader for 35 years. Like the Bourbons of France 200 years ago, they learn nothing and forget nothing. After the humiliating calamity of Hamas’s brutal October 7 2023 attack, Israel has powered back. Its armed forces and intelligence services have turned the tables, not just on Hamas but on Hizbollah and their sponsors in Iran. In the process, Netanyahu has ignored advice from Israel’s closest friends and shown scant respect for protecting civilian lives. Long-term support for Israel has been eroded in the west but its core enemies are seriously weakened. Israel has shown it is a new Sparta — a small nation with unrivalled military strength. But its politicians reject the idea that a political solution with the Palestinians is needed if the Jewish nation is to enjoy enduring peace and security. Israel has no plan for Gaza beyond indefinite occupation, unless it is the unstated one of driving the Palestinians there into Egypt and in parallel annexing as much of the occupied West Bank as possible. One prediction we can make with confidence, sadly, is that an independent Palestinian state will be no closer in a year’s time than it is no
MIDDLE EAST ISRAEL PALESTINE POLITICS CONFLICT
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