Typical movement behavior at large events increases risk of spreading infectiousdiseases UvA_Amsterdam SciReports
. However, the results also suggest that, in addition to the two types of mass-action mechanisms, additional factors are required to explain variations in the contact patterns, and that these factors are related to changes in crowd movement behaviour during an event.In this study we present several important features of the transmission of pathogens at large mass gathering events.
Using simulation, we have shown how different types of intermittent movement behaviour interact with key infection processes, indicating that the temporal dynamics of the contact patterns strongly influence transmission dynamics at mass gatherings. Our results expose the existence of a crossover point where increased contact duration presents a higher level of transmission risk than increasing the number of contacts.
To isolate the effect of movement patterns on pathogen transmission, we have made several simplifying assumptions, such as conditions being constant throughout the stadium, and only considering transmission during close contact or in physical proximity. In addition we have assumed key epidemiological parameters, such as infection probability and susceptibility, to be equal for all individuals. Both of these are certainly simplifications.
The longitudinal nature of the data set has allowed us to study how contact rates and incidence evolve in relation to crowd size. We have shown that different types of events give rise to one of two types of mass-action kinetics. We have also shown that contact rates and spreading on the empirical movements are time-varying. This suggests that contact rates are probably the result of a dynamic combination of the two mass-action mechanisms.
Our work shows the importance of a more integrative approach to mass gathering events, which considers these events in their full spatio-temporal complexity. Here we have taken a first step and show how different event scenarios, with different intermittent crowd behaviours, lead to different contact rates. A more holistic approach to events is essential if we want models to inform policy makers on specific types of events and the risks they present.
United Kingdom Latest News, United Kingdom Headlines
Similar News:You can also read news stories similar to this one that we have collected from other news sources.
GABAergic CA1 neurons are more stable following context changes than glutamatergic cells - Scientific ReportsScientific Reports - GABAergic CA1 neurons are more stable following context changes than glutamatergic cells
Read more »
Research shows a complex relationship between vaping and SARS-CoV-2 infectionIn a recent study posted to the bioRxiv* pre-print server, researchers at the University of California, Riverside investigated the effects of electronic cigarette (EC) use as a risk factor for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection.
Read more »
Hand constraint reduces brain activity and affects the speed of verbal responses on semantic tasks - Scientific ReportsScientific Reports - Hand constraint reduces brain activity and affects the speed of verbal responses on semantic tasks
Read more »
The roles of APOBEC-mediated RNA editing in SARS-CoV-2 mutations, replication and fitness - Scientific ReportsCOVID-19 mutations accelerated by virus-fighting enzyme in humancells, according to new research USC SciReports
Read more »
Oil Prices Unmoved By Large Crude Inventory Build | OilPrice.comCrude prices held steady on Tuesday afternoon after the API reported a large build in crude stocks in a week that the DoE release a record 8.4 million barrels from the SPR
Read more »
Hundreds contact 'very large' review into city maternity services'My gut sense is that it's a very large review, very large indeed'
Read more »