Reform UK Poised to Steal Labour Seats, New Polls Reveal

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Reform UK Poised to Steal Labour Seats, New Polls Reveal
Reform UKNigel FarageLabour
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A recent mega-poll predicts that Labour could lose more seats to Nigel Farage's Reform UK than the Conservatives, signaling a potential shift in the political landscape. The analysis, conducted by Focaldata, suggests a significant decline in Labour's support, particularly in traditional strongholds and regions across England and Wales.

A recent large-scale poll has revealed a potential threat to the Labour Party from Nigel Farage 's Reform UK, suggesting a greater loss of seats to Farage's party compared to the Conservatives . The analysis, conducted by Focaldata and seen by The Observer, indicates that Labour could lose numerous constituencies across its traditional 'red wall' strongholds, as well as seats in Wales and southern England, if a general election were held today.

The poll, commissioned by the Hope Not Hate campaign group, surveyed nearly 18,000 voters and found that 4,000 would support Reform UK. Notably, one-fifth of these voters identified as 'moderate, interventionist' – a demographic distinct from previous UKIP or Brexit voters. This group, while holding a positive view on immigration, expressed disappointment with Labour's ability to deliver on its promises. The research further suggests that even a slight shift in voter preference towards Reform UK could result in Starmer's party losing a substantial 76 seats. Labour's current narrow lead highlights the vulnerability of their position, as any increase in Reform UK support or even a slight decline in Labour's backing could propel Farage into the lead. This development comes amidst growing voter discontent and a sense of uncertainty about the future. A senior Labour source acknowledged the gravity of the situation, stating that 'At the general election, the vast majority of people who voted for Reform were not considering Labour. That won't be true now, because we're in government and people are looking for change.' They further emphasized the widespread feeling of disaffection and the fluidity of the electoral landscape, describing it as a 'change of era' marked by heightened anger and shifting political allegiances. Concurrent polls also indicate a surge in Reform UK's popularity, with a recent Survation poll placing them ahead of the Conservatives and just three points behind Labour. The survey found that Nigel Farage's party enjoys the support of 24% of voters, a four-percentage-point increase from the previous month. Conversely, the Conservatives saw a three-point decline to 22%, while Labour also dropped three points to 27%. This fragmentation of the electorate, with a growing number of voters rejecting the two main parties, raises concerns about the future of British politics

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