The Alaska-Pacific River Forecast Center has issued its spring breakup outlook for Alaska, with numerous villages along major rivers seeing a low to moderate flood potential.
Numerous villages will likely see a lower flood potential this year with a slight delay from average breakup datesPublished: Apr. 18, 2024 at 11:08 AM AKDTANCHORAGE, Alaska - As winter fades into the rearview, experts with the National Weather Service are looking ahead through the rest of spring with a forecast on this year’s river break-up, a phenomenon that can lead to serious ice jamming and flooding.shows numerous villages have a low to moderate flood potential.
Thermal breakup usually occurs at a slower rate, leading to a slow transition from cold temperatures to warm weather. As the weather continues to warm, it contributes to ice rotting, which is weaker and quickly breaks into smaller pieces. While ice jams could still form, they tend to not be as devastating and persistent as those caused by dynamic breakups.
Because Alaska has an above-average snowpack, any rapid warm-up could lead to a dynamic breakup situation. While snow has generally been slow to melt this spring, a recent climb in temperatures for parts of Interior Alaska could begin to change things. Currently, snowpack levels in the parts of the eastern Interior remain well above average — nearly 130% of normal.
The current outlook favors warmer conditions for central and eastern Alaska regions, while Western and Southwest Alaska is tilting the odds in the favor of normal weather. This would lead to a delayed or slow start to break up for Western Alaska, while Eastern Alaska could see the potential for an early start to break up. If this unfolds, expect to see a concern for ice jams and flooding in Western and Southwest Alaska.
The river forecast center is expecting breakup to be 0-2 days late for the eastern half of the state, while the western half of the state could be up to four days late. However, any warmth that does build into the state this month could lead to an early start for breakup across the eastern half of the state.Most Read
River Flooding In Alaska Yukon River Flooding Kuskokwim River Flooding
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