In Brazil, climate and other human-made environmental changes threaten decades-long efforts to fight a widespread and debilitating parasitic disease.
Stanford UniversityAug 5 2024 Now, a partnership between researchers from Stanford and Brazil is helping to proactively predict these impacts.
For the first time, we have been able to combine tools like long-term snail surveillance records with satellite imagery that tracks agricultural expansion, the growth of urban areas, and climate at fine resolution across entire countries. With these tools, we can map how the habitat for schistosomiasis-transmitting snails is changing across Brazil with unprecedented precision that helps us understand where schistosomiasis could appear next.
While Brazil has the chance to eliminate schistosomiasis in some parts of the country thanks to improved sanitation and living conditions, climate change and economic disparities threaten progress in other areas, she said. And yet, when Aly Singleton, a PhD student in Stanford's Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources, set out to build such a model for snails, she found little information to help her decide which methodology would be best.
Some models provided much broader estimates of which areas were favorable to the snails, while others were much more stringent and narrow in their predictions of where the snail might be. Both types of models could be useful under different circumstances, Singleton said. For instance, in a region with more limited resources to address schistosomiasis, the more stringent model could help identify areas to prioritize – those areas where the snail was almost sure to be found.
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