Success rates on stolen bases are up this year. But stealing third base numbers are what stand out. And it goes beyond just enlarged bases, writes enosarris. Old- and new-school thinking have merged to create a new basepath battleground.
“He’s a menace on the base paths,” laments Giants play-by-play announcer Dave Flemming on the TV broadcast during the battle. “You can basically guarantee that if he gets to first base, he’ll be running.”
For Kapler, this is mostly a story about being prepared. In the spring, the team spent hours working on this sort of pickoff move, to the eye rolls of the players. The Giants ran a version of this practice where each pitcher had to be the baserunner and give the pitcher on the mound a “Gladiator” style thumbs up or down on their inside move. Everyone was enthusiastic with the thumbs down before they had to get on the mound themselves.
“The key to a good inside move is being able to sell it,” said Kapler. “If you’re standing out at second base watching a pitcher on the mound, there’s something when you get that gut feeling that it doesn’t look like the other thing. It’s easy to shut down any ambition you might have of stealing third base and just get back to second. It really has to resemble what a delivery to the plate might look like.
Overall, runners have successfully stolen eight out of every 10 attempts. That is the most efficient they’ve ever been in the free agency area,that had led to a previous peak in 2021 . But now we can take a look at how the overall success rate compares to the success rate of stealing third in particular, thanks to STATS Perform.
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