UFC 301 expert picks, best bets: Where does Erceg pose a threat to Pantoja?

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UFC 301 expert picks, best bets: Where does Erceg pose a threat to Pantoja?
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Who has the edge in this week's UFC fights? An MMA coach and a betting insider make their picks.

has been in the UFC for less than a year. He made his debut in June 2023 with a decision victory that earned the Australian flyweight a performance of the night bonus, and followed that with a decision win overThat most recent win, over a top-10 125-pounder, earned Erceg another postfight bonus -- and a title shot.

Andreas Hale spoke to MMA coach and ESPN analyst Din Thomas to get his perspective on the main event. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds his insights and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets he likes on the card.Men's flyweight championship: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Steve Erceg Alexandre Pantoja, left, will defend his flyweight title for the second time when he faces Steve Erceg at UFC 301 on Saturday in Rio de Janeiro. Pantoja's strength is obviously his grappling. But he is also very durable and tough as nails. He has the ability to close the distance, although he may take a few shots. When he gets in close, he's usually able to get his opponents down to the ground.

This is a head-scratcher for me. As much as I love Aldo, the King of Rio, this fight makes little sense for returning from retirement. Martinez is a very dangerous fighter with not a big name. On top of that, Aldo has been out of action for the better part of two years. And to make things even worse for the former champion, Martinez is on a six-fight winning streak and has been dominating the field in Aldo's absence. I'm taking the younger Martinez here.

Brito is riding a four-fight win streak, with all of the wins by way of KO or submission. As talented as Shore is, if he can't take Brito down and hold him there, he's in trouble. And I think that's what is going to happen. Brito will be the bigger and stronger fighter, and I can see him rocking Shore early with his striking. We have seen Brito overcome adversity and win while behind on the scorecards, and we have also seen him flatten people in Round 1.

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