Internal Ministry of Defence calculations suggest the UK needs a 3.6% GDP allocation for defence to modernise its military, meet NATO obligations, and protect its nuclear deterrent. This figure, considered unrealistic due to the UK's financial constraints, would be a 56% increase from current spending levels. While Sir Keir Starmer has pledged to raise spending to 2.5%, experts warn that even this level may be insufficient to meet all UK military ambitions.
The UK needs to spend 3.6 per cent of GDP on defence if it wants to modernise its military while protecting its nuclear deterrent and meeting Nato obligations, according to internal Ministry of Defence calculations. The figure would be a 56 per cent increase on current spending levels of 2.3 per cent, and is widely regarded as a completely unrealistic request in light of the UK’s stretched finances. Sir Keir Starmer has given an “iron clad” promise to raise spending to 2.
5 per cent, and has launched a root-and-branch review of Britain’s military capabilities that will conclude next year. The 3.6 per cent figure would raise spending to about £93bn and take the UK closer to Poland, which shares a border with Ukraine and spends more than 4 per cent of its GDP on defence annually. One person involved in the strategic defence review said the mooted 3.6 per cent number was “a wish number doing the rounds around the MoD”. Another said the figure was the number service chiefs “wrote down their Christmas list, knowing that there is no Santa Claus”. Without the increase, the UK would have to axe some military ambitions and commitments, people involved with the process warn. “Either we are going to have to delete some capabilities or reduce headcount further,” said one senior defence official. “There is a gap between our ambitions and reality . . . even 3.6 per cent may not be enough.” Yet the number is far from the highest estimate being fed into the review, according to four people with knowledge of the process. The National Audit Office has taken a dim view of some of the ministry’s finalised blueprints. Last year, it called the 2023 defence equipment plan “unaffordable” because it would exceed the available budget by almost £17b
DEFENCE SPENDING UK MILITARY NATO NUCLEAR DETERRENT MINISTRY OF DEFENCE
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