Few sectors have been spared from the carnage: just 84 out of 500 firms are in positive territory for the year. Those hoping to profit from “buying the dip” may be disappointed
is under control, no matter the pain it inflicts on households and businesses. Although about 90 central banks have raised interest rates this year, all eyes are on the Fed. On September 21st it raised the federal funds rate by three-quarters of a percentage point, its third such increase since June. Markets expect the Fed to raise its benchmark rate by another three-quarters of a point in November and half a point in December, bringing it to a range of 4.25% to 4.5% by the end of the year.
Some analysts worry that the Fed may overshoot. Monetary policy works with a lag of 18 months or more. The risk is that, after moving too slowly to respond to inflation, the bank may now be too aggressive. Although the Fed hopes for a “soft landing”, in which the heat is taken out of the economy without provoking a recession, many investors now believe that a downturn is likely.
Another worry is that inflation may last much longer than expected. In a recent research note Athanasios Vamvakidis, a strategist at Bank of America, analysed episodes of high inflation in advanced economies between 1980 and 2000. Mr Vamvakidis found that once inflation rises above 5%, it takes an average of 10 years for it to return to 2%. This suggests that the consensus view—that inflation in America will come down to 3% by 2024—may be too optimistic.
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