On Thursday we will find out whether the UK is in a recession. But whether or not we've skirted one will have little impact on people's lives
On Thursday we will find out whether the UK is in a recession. But whether or not we've skirted one will have little impact on people's livesThe UK is set to enter a recession just as Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is preparing the spring Budget three months was also negative, then the threshold will have been met.
The difference between a quarterly fall in gross domestic product of 0.051 per cent – which would show up as a negative change in GDP of 0.1 per cent – and no change in GDP is actually quite small. That’s the difference between being in a recession or not, and yet, we put so much stress on the term that you would expect these numbers to be vastly different.
This brings me to the bad news. Between the second quarter of 2022 and the third quarter of 2023, quarterly GDP growth in the UK averaged only 0.1 per cent. In other words, regardless of what we see on Thursday, the UK economy is growing at a snail’s pace. And it gets worse. If we adjust for population growth over this period, this average growth rate turns negative.GDP per head at the end of 2023 was still lower than at the end of 2019, just before the pandemic hit.
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