A YouGov poll suggests Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, is poised for significant gains, potentially leading to a minority government. The survey forecasts a substantial increase in seats for Reform, while also indicating shifts in support for other parties like the Liberal Democrats, SNP, and Greens. The poll utilizes the MRP method for a detailed constituency-by-constituency analysis.
Britain's Reform UK party leader Nigel Farage reacts during the Reform party's annual conference at the National Exhibition Centre in Birmingham, England, Saturday, Sept. 6, 2025.The YouGov survey of 13,000 people shows Reform would win 311 seats – up from the five they won at last year’s election.
The number of Lib Dem MPs would increase by six to 78, with the SNP on 37 , the Greens on 7 and Plaid Cymru on 6 . Such a result would almost certainly result in Farage leading a minority government, meaning he would have to do deals with other parties to get Reform legislation through the Commons.In terms of vote share, Reform UK are on 27% of the national vote, with Labour on 21%, the Tories on 17%, the Liberal Democrats on 15% and the Greens on 11%. The seat totals are calculated using the so-called “MRP” method, which compiles constituency-by-constituency data to provide a more accurate forecast.Patrick English, YouGov’s director of political analytics, said the poll showed Reform would be “within touching distance of winning a parliamentary majority”. He said: “Their seat total in a hypothetical election would almost certainly be enough to see them take the reins of government.”English said: “Such a defeat for Labour would be an even greater loss of seats than the Conservatives experienced at the last general election, and a sharp turnaround from a majority victory that was expected by some to carry the party through at least two terms in office.”English said: “We would expect the Conservatives – the current official opposition – to win only 68 seats at the very maximum, with the Liberal Democrats projected to win no fewer than 65 seats and potentially as many as 86.”'You Must Be Joking': Billy Bragg Mocks Nigel Farage's Hopes Of Being PM On BBC Question Time
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