A new study predicts that climate change will lead to a significant increase in rodent-borne virus outbreaks, including hantavirus and arenaviruses, across South America. Researchers warn that shifting rodent habitats due to rising temperatures will bring these deadly viruses into regions with no prior exposure, posing a major public health threat. The warning comes as a cruise ship outbreak claims three lives, highlighting the urgent need for preparedness.
The recent outbreak of hantavirus on a cruise ship could be just the beginning of a larger public health crisis, according to a new study by scientists.
Researchers have issued a stark warning that climate change will lead to an increased 'spillover' of rodent-borne viruses, posing a significant threat to millions of people across South America. As global temperatures rise, rodent populations are expected to shift, driving deadly arenaviruses into regions that have never encountered these diseases before.
This prediction comes as more than 20 British passengers remain stranded on a cruise ship off the coast of Cape Verde, where three individuals have died from hantavirus infections, including a Dutch couple and a German national. The MV Hondius, a Dutch-flagged vessel, had previously docked in Argentina, a country where hantavirus and arenaviruses claim dozens of lives annually.
However, scientists caution that such outbreaks will become more frequent as the climate continues to warm. Arenaviruses, like hantavirus, are hosted by rodents and typically spread to humans through animal contact rather than person-to-person transmission. These viruses, which include Guanarito virus in Venezuela and Colombia, Machupo virus in Bolivia and Paraguay, and Junin virus in Argentina, cause severe hemorrhagic fevers with hospitalization rates as high as 30 percent and fatality rates ranging from five to 30 percent.
The impact of these diseases is closely tied to changes in rodent habitats, which are being dramatically altered by climate change. Previous studies have shown that factors such as temperature and precipitation significantly influence the risk of rodent-borne diseases like Lassa fever and hantavirus.
For instance, the distribution of the drylands vesper mouse, which transmits Argentine Hemorrhagic Fever, is expected to undergo substantial changes due to climate shifts. In their research, scientists used machine learning to integrate climate projections, population density predictions, infection risks, and habitat suitability for six rodent species linked to these viruses. The findings indicate that as temperatures rise, the habitats of rodents carrying arenaviruses will shift, bringing them into closer contact with human populations.
This could lead to outbreaks in regions that have never before faced these diseases. The study highlights that the guanarito virus, currently confined to central Venezuela, will likely spread to parts of Colombia, Suriname, and northern Brazil. Similarly, the machupo virus, which causes often-fatal Bolivian Hemorrhagic Fever, is expected to expand from Bolivia's flatlands to the Andes foothills and mountainous regions.
The Junin virus, responsible for Argentine Hemorrhagic Fever, will move out of grassland areas and spread across the rest of Argentina. While some areas may see a reduction in risk due to prior exposure, others will face increased dangers of infection. Populations with little to no prior exposure to these viruses may be particularly vulnerable to severe disease.
Lead author Dr. Pranav Kulkarni from the UC Davis Weill School of Veterinary Medicine emphasizes the urgency of the situation, stating that as climate change accelerates, the outbreak risk of dangerous New World arenaviruses could spread to millions more people across South America. Senior author Dr. Pranav Pandit adds that the study connects the dots between changing climatic conditions, land use, shifting rodent populations, and human infection risk, providing critical insights into where future zoonotic arenaviral outbreaks could emerge
Climate Change Rodent-Borne Viruses Hantavirus Arenaviruses Public Health
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