The U.S. is approaching a critical legal deadline under the War Powers Resolution as the administration weighs renewed strikes on Iran while arguing a ceasefire has paused the statutory clock.
Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict The legal floor under the Iran war is starting to give way. Today marks 60 days since the White House notified Congress that U.S. forces were engaged in hostilities against Iran.
Under the War Powers Resolution, that is the point at which the president either gets congressional authorization or it's over. The administration is now arguing that the ceasefire with Iran effectively paused the clock. Trump is now being pressured to either seek authorization or file the required 30-day withdrawal notice. By law, Trump can ask for an extra 30 days, but only to pull forces out, not to keep fighting.
Meanwhile, CENTCOM is reportedly preparing to brief Trump on a plan to break the negotiating deadlock with a 'short and powerful' round of strikes on Iran sending Brent to over $126 immediately afterwards. The administration says it thinks Iran wants a deal. Iran's supreme leader says otherwise. Ego-driven foreign policy gained more ground flying high this week.
Trump is threatening to reduce the U.S. troop presence in Germany, triggered by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who said earlier this week that the U.S. was being humiliated by Iranian leadership and criticized Washington's lack of strategy. Trump responded with a social media post saying the administration is studying a possible reduction, and a decision will come soon. By Thursday, he had widened the threat, saying 'probably' when asked about pulling troops from Italy and Spain.
During Trump's first term, he ordered roughly 9,500 troops out of Germany over defense spending complaints, but it never actually happened because Biden killed it when he assumed the presidency. Germany hosts U.S. European Command, U.S. Africa Command, Ramstein Air Base, and Landstuhl Regional Medical Center, the largest American military hospital outside the U.S. Merz met Trump at the White House in March, days after the Iran bombing began, and offered to work on postwar strategy.
The economic damage from an extended conflict was his chief concern. Two months later, Trump is threatening force posture reductions on NATO soil while fighting a war that has Europe on edge and global oil markets in turmoil. A Guardian investigation has revealed that the leadership of the Rapid Support Forces RSF, the paramilitary group supported by the UAE while the Saudis support the Sudanese army, has built a 17.7-million property portfolio in Dubai.
The RSF has turned smuggled gold into hard currency through UAE-based firms, and Dubai functions as the hub. But war profiteers are also playing the other side of this conflict from inside the UAE. UAE prosecutors have indicted 13 individuals over a $13-million plot to smuggle weapons to the Sudanese Armed Forces, the RSF's enemy.
In the meantime, the carnage continues, with UN investigators saying the RSF's massacre at el-Fasher last October, where Yale researchers estimate 70,000 people were killed or went missing, bears the hallmarks of genocide. Iraq's new prime minister-designate, Ali al-Zaidi, has Trump's backing. The White House got what it wanted; namely, it ensured the loss of Nouri al-Maliki, who was favored by the Iran-backed Coordination Framework. They backed down over al-Maliki when Trump threatened to cut off aid.
Al-Zaidi is a 43-year-old banker with no government experience, and he takes office at a time when Iraq is trapped between the U.S.-Iran war and the Hormuz closure collapsing oil production from 4.5 million barrels per day to 1.33 million. Exports are down more than 80%, and monthly revenues have plunged from $7 billion to under $2 billion. The IMF expects the economy to contract 6.8% this year, and the state has enough cash to last through mid-May.
Washington has halted dollar shipments to the central bank, frozen parts of its security cooperation, and is demanding that Baghdad dismantle the Iran-backed militias. He's inheriting a crisis that's just getting started. He has to simultaneously curb the militias to satisfy Washington, preserve Tehran's influence, and manage a free-falling economy in freefall. His own bank, Al-Janoob Islamic, was banned from dollar transactions in 2024 over U.S. accusations of laundering money for Iran and allied militias.
The Panama Canal's entrance ports are now a flashpoint between Washington and Beijing, and Panama is caught in the middle. The country's Supreme Court voided port concessions held by Hong Kong's CK Hutchison in January, which was widely seen as a response to U.S. pressure to curb Chinese influence over the strategic waterway. Panama handed temporary operations to Maersk's APM Terminals and MSC's TIL Panama. CK Hutchison is fighting the move in international arbitration.
President Jose Raul Mulino told reporters Thursday that China sent a high-level message acknowledging the arbitration and clarifying the dispute is not between governments, a shift in tone he called constructive. But detentions of Panama-flagged ships in Chinese ports continue, and Beijing this week accused Washington of politicizing the ports after the U.S. and allies issued a joint statement backing Panama's sovereignty. The canal handles 5% of global maritime trade.
Discovery & Development Eni moved to restart the Junin-5 heavy oil project with PDVSA this week after Claudio Descalzi signed a new agreement in Caracas, putting one of Venezuela's largest undeveloped Orinoco assets back into play. Junin-5 holds 35 billion barrels of certified oil in place, and the move adds to a broader push by Caracas to pull foreign operators back into upstream development as it tries to lift production.
Eni also advanced its Venezuelan gas position through Cardon IV, where the company and Repsol are pursuing higher output from Perla and a longer-term export path. Eni said Venezuela production averaged 64,000 boe/d in 2025, largely from Perla, which supplies roughly 35% of domestic gas demand, while the Junin relaunch adds heavy oil back into the growth pipeline.
Deals, Mergers & Acquisitions ADNOC is evaluating a multibillion-dollar push into U.S. natural gas through as many as 29 potential acquisitions as it builds a vertically integrated position spanning production, pipelines, and LNG, with data center demand also part of the strategy. The move expands XRG's U.S. footprint beyond existing stakes in Exxon's Baytown hydrogen project and NextDecade's Rio Grande LNG.
Shell agreed to buy ARC Resources for $16.4 billion, adding roughly 370,000 boe/d and expanding its Canadian gas position as it strengthens supply into LNG Canada and deepens its exposure to long-term LNG growth. The deal adds around 2 billion barrels of reserves, supports Shell's production growth targets, and pushes the supermajor further into a gas strategy built around export demand and Pacific Basin LNG flows.
Repsol has postponed plans to list its upstream unit in the United States despite being structurally ready for an IPO or reverse merger. Chief Executive Josu Jon Imaz said the company sees no urgency to move in the near term. The logic is that upstream fundamentals are improving, and market volatility from the Iran war is already lifting refining margins and group earnings. In other words, Repsol is waiting for a better entry price.
Repsol sold a 25% stake in the unit to EIG in 2022 at a roughly $19 billion valuation, and both sides agree there is no need to rush. The portfolio spans Alaska, Brazil, Mexico, Libya, and Venezuela, with the Pikka project in Alaska as the main growth engine. Venezuelan output is rising with both local and U.S. approvals in place.
An IPO would move the unit into a capital framework governed by U.S. investor expectations on returns, growth, and capital discipline. Repsol is holding off until the market justifies that. Energy Earnings Phillips 66 beat first-quarter expectations as stronger refining margins pushed adjusted earnings to $0.49 per share, versus expectations for a loss, while the company also expanded Sweeny fractionation capacity and Freeport LPG export capacity to deepen its Gulf Coast NGL position.
The company continues its broad buildout, including the Coastal Bend pipeline expansion and a proposed new Corpus Christi fractionator. BP more than doubled first-quarter underlying profit to $3.2 billion as oil trading and stronger refining margins lifted earnings, with downstream operations and supply optimization driving much of the gain.
The results were supported by steady upstream output, improved refining availability, and stronger trading performance, while BP held capital spending guidance in place, maintained its dividend, and continued portfolio reshaping as higher prices and longer shipping routes pushed working capital needs and net debt higher. Baker Hughes beat first-quarter revenue estimates by $260 million as surging LNG and gas equipment orders drove strong growth in its Industrial & Energy Technology segment, offsetting weakness in oilfield services tied to Middle East disruptions.
Orders jumped 54% year over year, supported by major LNG and power contracts, including QatarEnergy and Petrobras, as Baker Hughes continued shifting deeper into LNG infrastructure, gas turbines, and power technologies tied to rising global energy and data center demand. Sinopec lifted first-quarter profit 28% as higher crude prices boosted inventory values and upstream output helped offset disruption-driven pressure on refining, even as the company trimmed runs during the Middle East supply shock.
Capital spending also moved higher with a stronger push into upstream oil and gas, underscoring how Chinese majors are using higher prices to support earnings and reinvestment. TotalEnergies lifted first-quarter earnings 30% on stronger oil prices and robust trading profits, raising its interim dividend and continuing share buybacks as cash flow strengthened.
Higher upstream income, production growth from new projects and strong LNG and oil trading helped offset Middle East disruptions, reinforcing how integrated majors are capturing upside from market volatility. Eni missed first-quarter earnings expectations as refining and chemicals weighed on results, but raised its 2026 buyback to 2.8 billion and lifted cash flow guidance as stronger upstream growth supported confidence in returns.
The company held capex plans in place, reaffirmed production growth targets, and continued pushing expansion in core hydrocarbons and gas, including new momentum around Venezuelan export development.
Trump Iran Policy U.S. Congress Authorization Iran Ceasefire CENTCOM Strikes Oil Prices Brent Constitutional Law U.S. Military Action Middle East Conflict Executive Power
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