How has vaccination shaped the global evolutionary trajectory of SARS-CoV-2? biorxivpreprint UniCologne SARSCoV2 COVID19 Coronavirus Vaccination Vaccine
By Neha MathurJul 26 2022Reviewed by Aimee Molineux In a recent study posted to the bioRxiv* pre-print server, researchers developed a maximum likelihood model to capture severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 evolutionary dynamics in multiple geographical regions.
Background The rapid turnover of SARS-CoV-2 genetic clades, with new variants showing increased fitness and transmissibility, attenuated the cross-immunity induced by previous infections and vaccinations. Here it is also noteworthy that because it depends on population immunity, the evolutionary impact of antigenic changes between SARS-CoV-2 variants is time-dependent. Therefore, in the past, widespread vaccinations influenced the turnover of circulating clades of influenza virus.
In the past two years, three SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and their associated clades attained global prevalence: i) Alpha between March and June 2021, ii) Delta between June and December 2021, and iii) Omicron in 2022. The researchers recorded the frequency trajectories of VOC shifts for multiple countries meeting the uniform criteria and three US states, namely, New York, Texas, and California. They ensured all data was accurate and time-resolved.
Further, the study analysis revealed that antigenic selection increased in strength and broadened its target. For instance, infection-induced antigenic selection increased in strength from 0.01 to 0.03 in the α – δ and the δ – o shifts. Both vaccination and previous infections induced substantial antigenic selection on circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants and modulated the pace of succeeding clade shifts.
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