Waves of COVID-19 are getting weaker and when infections drop to very low levels following a wave, we’ll know COVID-19 is settling into a seasonal pattern.
At best, Australia may be through the pandemic in 2024, says Professor James Wood, an infectious disease modeller who has closely analysed the data since the first days of the pandemic.will vanish. It means it would have settled into a predictable annual event. Just as the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 eventually settled into a weaker winter disease, so COVID-19 is “a fair way along the path to a seasonal pattern”, Wood says.
“We’ve seen a number of variants come up which, in the laboratory, look like they will cause a really big wave. But when they show up in human populations, they spread more slowly and have not been a big problem. By the beginning of March, the number had more than halved to about 800. The number of people in ICU, also dropped from the high 40s to under 20.
Then there’s the question of how to manage this stage of the pandemic. Australian public health experts are split. One side has very low tolerance for any COVID-19 risk and believes transmission can and should be prevented.
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